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Chance of Rain Probability Card Game

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This game encourages students to think about how probability changes as cards are removed from a deck. It's a fun game that gets students thinking and predicting what might happen next. A handy sheet is included to help students keep track of the changing probabilities, both in fraction and percentage format. It also contains a compatibility matrix which each player has that shows which items cards go with which weather cards. 


Rules of Play

  • Shuffle the Weather cards so that they are in as random an order as possible.- Place the Weather cards in a pile face-down in the middle.
  • Shuffle the Item cards, and deal out 6 cards per player. Up to 6 players.
  • Players are NOT allowed to see each other’s cards at this point.
  • The Round; all players have a chance to swap ONE item card with a new mystery one
  • Players judge from the probability tracker sheet what Weather card might be most likely to be revealed. At the start of the game there are more rain cards than wind, more wind cards than sun, more sun cards than snow etc. 
  • Players use the Compatibility Cards to confirm what Items match with what Weather.
  • Some Item cards work with multiple Weather cards, so strategy is highly encouraged.
  • All players must play at least TWO of their items cards if they have 4 or more cards.
  • All players must play at least ONE of their item cards if they have 3 or fewer cards.
  • Item cards are played by placing them face down on the table in front of the player.
  • The first Weather card is turned over from the top of the deck. All played item cards are revealed.
  • Players keep all played cards that are compatible, and lose all cards that are not compatible.
  • The revealed Weather card is discarded, thus changing the probabilities of other cards appearing.
  • The round is repeated.
  • Play continues, until the first player has lost all their cards. At this point, all other players score a point per card they keep. 
  • Play continues for a set number of rounds or until a player has reached a certain score (such as 15 points). 
  • Do not reshuffle the weather cards each round UNLESS the storm card is played. 

Special Cards

  • If a storm card is played, the round ends and players lose the number of points related to how many cards are in their hand. 
  • If the all clear card is played, the round ends and players are awarded the number of points based on the number of cards in their hand. The player or players in last place gets double these points. 
Get this game as part of our Card Game Bundle 4 and save.
This is a digital product. A download link will be sent to your email address upon purchase and you can then print as many copies as you need to use in your classroom or for home use.